Bolton v Manchester United
Bolton
Bolton Wanderers lost their last league outing 1-0 away against Arsenal and have won just once in their last six games since their 4-1 away win against Sunderland.
This six game run has included five defeats, with defeat in each of their last three matches (with Bolton also failing to find the net in these matches), and has yielded just 3 points from the 18 available. They have scored 4 times and leaked 10 goals in the process, and have slipped to twelfth in the table.
The Trotters have been given clearance for loan signing Sebastien Puygrenier to play, following his move from Zenit St Petersburg. Gary Megson has ruled out the signing of Brazilian winger Denilson following his trial and the speculated move for Jamie Bullard, but there is a clear intention for further improvements, which is sure to add a mixture of excitement and motivation to existing players for forthcoming games.
Bolton captain Kevin Nolan will be unavailable as he serves the second of a two match suspension, but Greter Steinssen will return after a one match reprimand. Nicky Hunt will also be unavailable with a thigh injury, along with Gavin McCann (ankle) and Ricardo Vaz Te (knee), while Gary Cahill (back), Tamir Cohen (hamstring) and Joey O’Brien (thigh) have a chance of returning.
Manchester United
Manchester United won their last league outing 1-0 at home against Wigan Athletic and are undefeated in nine games since losing 2-1 away against Arsenal.
This nine game run has included seven wins, with four in their last four matches and yielded 23 points from the 27 on offer. Man Utd have scored 13 goals and conceded none to build nine straight clean sheets, as they have moved up to second in the league.
The Red Devils have taken a blow with Wayne Rooney suffering a hamstring injury in their midweek victory over Wigan ruling him out for at least three weeks. They will also have to do without Patrice Evra (foot), Owen Hargreaves (knee) and Rio Ferdinand (back), whilst Jonny Evans (foot) and Carlos Tevez (ankle) are both doubts, but Wes Brown (ankle) could return.
Prediction
Manchester United lost 1-0 to Bolton in this corresponding fixture last season, but have already beaten the Trotters 2-0 earlier this season Old Trafford. The reigning champions are in top-of-the-table form, whilst Bolton are on a terrible run.
With Bolton finding it particularly difficult to score recently, coupled with Manchester United seemingly impenetrable defense, it seems Bolton’s best chance will be to adopt an approach of avoiding defeat.
Despite the fact that this will be The Red Devils third game in 7 days, and that they have number of big players injured, Bolton could also have several players missing. Also, with the absence of Kevin Nolan likely to be a significant blow to Bolton, the league’s in-form team should be favourites for a testing away win.
Filed under Sports betting | No Comments »
Make Your Sports Viewing More Fun And Interesting!
Many years ago when I started betting on sports, I never imagined that ten years on I would be betting and trading for a living.
So how did it all start? Well, ‘for fun’ I would think is the most accurate answer! I placed bets for fun on sporting events that I intended watching on TV or attending in person. These bets, along with the small amount of betting research that I did back then, tended to increase my knowledge of the particular sport on which I was betting and certainly made the event more exciting to watch.
Now of course I stake my bets far more heavily, research more thoroughly and trade off positions as necessary. Yet sometimes I do miss those ‘carefree’ days when I had “twenty bucks on the game”. It adds to your day - especially if you win!
So what are two basic things that the sports bettor needs: Firstly he needs a place to bet online. Two sportsbooks that I particularly like, both of which are in world’s “top ten” online sports betting and gambling groups, are: - Bwin and Gamebookers - Both sportsbooks also offer free comprehensive sports news, stats and matchups data.
Secondly - the sports bettor needs to have a feel for ‘value’ when betting. If the three rules of purchasing property or real estate are “location, location, location.” then the three basic rules of sports betting success are: “value, value, value.”
Think about it - would you go to a store and by a broom for $20.00 when you can buy it for $10.00 at an equally close location?
Or if you were purchasing stocks or shares - would you simply buy the stock, or first consider the stock’s price - factoring in price/ratio, moving averages, historical data and economic outlook?
It boils down to - “not paying more for a product than that product is worth.”
When I look at a bet - I have a rough idea in my head of what the odds should be. If the price quoted by the sportsbook is sufficiently above that estimation in percentage terms - then I will go ahead and bet on the event.
I will not win every bet, especially on underdog plays - but in the long run I know that if I go with value - then I will come out on top.
The best advice that I can offer to those starting out in sports betting is to “stick with what you know”. If you have a team that you follow and already know well - then you are, in a sense, already a “mini expert”.
Have fun!
Filed under Sports betting | 1 Comment »
Online Gambling During the Global Financial Crisis - A Positive View
The online gambling business is to be spared during these tough economic times and will continue to grow at double digit year on year percentage rates. This statement comes from a recent study displayed to the public right before the global financial crisis hit the world stage. A prophetic study this, as weeks later the world began to exert the economic age of turbulence predicted by the wise and now retired FED chairman, Alan Greenspan.
We live in tough economic times, where a simple bubble burst or bank breakdown has strong worldwide ripple effects which shows our interconnectivity and economic frailty in this global marketplace of social paranoia, at least in the financial speculation of the human psyche. Major banks close down such as the renowned Lehman Brothers, governments emerge to form rescue packages and purchase equity in places such as Goldman Sachs (one of the investment banking elite), and major corporations and even sports authorities fire workers such as Volvo and the NBA.
However, few industries are meant to benefit from this economic debacle, and this is the online gambling sector. Before the crisis, one would walk into marketing research firms and ask for an industry report only to see positive growth curves for the industry in terms of forecasts, and positive pro forma financial studies. Believe it or not, this is still meant to happen, and here is why. Punters will always continue to place bets, no matter the volume, it might be less than before as they will cautiously view economic downturn as a global recessionary practice in their expenditures, or they might spend more as they need to break even and hope that the online gambling endeavor will help them make ends meet.
Clients with an already addictive personality will continue to place bets. Wealthy gamblers will still make their usual monthly allotments into their gambling investments. Masses will NOT drive, fly, take public transportation to their favorite sports books or casino destinations, and instead will opt for an easy to use alternative such as betting from your PC at home or work given lower costs such as cheap broadband and no need to spend on transportation and extra costs, ease of use, and quickness combined with the safety these worldwide brands now offer the public. With the smoking ban on many brick and mortar establishments, gamblers will also take their activities online.
These are the main reasons the sector will now prosper. Some speculators even state the industry is in for a major growth due to these circumstances, and in five years, the industry will showcase top notch performance in terms of volume growth. Major gaming corporations are displaying positive value in their stocks on major world markets therefore displaying industry confidence. If Obama wins, the USA might re-open its online gambling doors yet again as the Senator has voted in favor of recent bills aimed at regulating the industry, and this will surely favor major betting operators not only in industry volume growth terms, but in financial retributions.
Filed under Gambling | 1 Comment »
How to lose at sports betting
Why the impatient gambler loses, and how to win
Don’t like to lose? Get really upset when you lose? You might not be cut-out for sports betting unless you can change your attitude. As you will see below, losing days, weeks, or even months are inevitable. They are built into the fabric of life thanks to the laws of statistics. The key to being a winning sports bettor is to understand and embrace the realities instead of fighting them.
Bursts and streaks are inevitable - in life and in sports betting
Don’t believe it? Think you can somehow find a way to win consistently without suffering losing streaks? Think again!
Consider the stock market. According to Money Magazine (April 2008), had you invested in an S&P 500 index fund in August 1997 and sat tight for 10 years, you’d have racked up an 88% return. Had you missed just the 20 best days in the market over that period, you would have had a 20% loss!
Think about what that means. Out of 3,650 days, 20 were big winners and the rest, in aggregate, was losers! Stock returns come in bursts. The same is true in sports betting (especially when picking underdogs in moneyline sports like baseball and hockey).
Streaks happen. Winning streaks happen. And, as much as we like to deny their existence, losing streaks happen.Even in a season where you hit an unbelievable 60% winners (as good as it ever gets), there will be losing days, losing weeks and maybe even a losing month.
Consistent day-after-day winning just does not happen. Read that over again if you must. The point is, you need to expect losing streaks. And, you can’t get too bent out of shape when they happen. If you expect them, you won’t get too upset. Getting upset only makes things worse as that emotion forces you to do the wrong thing (chase or stop). You need to stay the course, again, shooting for 55%-60% winners over the long haul.
If a losing day or a losing week gets you too upset, you are probably betting too much. You need to be able to take those short-term hits so you can be around for the long term spoils. Bet a small enough percentage of your bankroll that you can survive the short-term losing streaks.
Begin to manage your sports wagering like a business that doesn’t need a good day, or a good week, or even a good month, but rather needs to show a profit at year’s end. If you can cap out 55%+ this is the only way it can be done!
What’s the difference between winning and losing? Not much.
To further demonstrate how hard it is to “win” consistently, check out these probabilities, presented so you can get a feel of what winning feels like. The best way to describe what winning feels like? It feels like losing!
Yes, you read that right - it feels like losing, and that is why most gamblers crumble to the psyche that initializes their demise!
Let us explain. Let’s say your having success gambling.You are a long-term 55% handicapper, yet somehow it doesn’t feel like it is supposed to feel.
Here is your answer:
Let’s say you average between 3-5 plays a day, let’s say on average 4 plays per day. If you are a 55% gambler making 4 plays per day this is your statistical expectation:
|
So, what does this tell us? It tells us that the chance you’ll have a winning day, after the juice/vig is considered is less than 50/50! To have a winning day in this scenario, you need to win 3 or 4 out of 4. The chance of that is happening 39.1% (29.95% + 9.15%). So, over 60% of the time you - a winning gambler - will be losing money!
Now you can see where the problem lies. A gambler goes 2-2 on his well capped plays, but after a 2-2, or 1-3, or the rare 0-4 decides he needs to make money for the day, and plays an ill-advised game. Or, he bets too much to try to catch up. Unconsciously he has just reduced his chances of being a 55% capper, even though he is!
It goes beyond basic money management. It takes a substantial amount of bankroll discipline to accept losing 60.9% of the time, in order to win. WHY? Because it feels like losing! Until this is understood, the sports bettor, even the one that can hit a good winning percentage,will show a loss at years end.
In the end, remember:
- Even at 60% winners you lose 52.48% of all days you bet!
- As counterintuitive as it may sound, winning feels like losing
- Don’t fight the losing days or weeks. There will be many of them. Take a deep breath and ride it out until the winning streak comes along.
Filed under Sports betting | No Comments »